Oct 26, 2026
Written by The Pope Team | Christine Pope & Paul Pope
Picture two homes a few blocks apart, not far from the Arlington Park & Aquatic Complex. One lists at $1.3 million. The other lists at $2.4 million. Same neighborhood, same zip code, and two very different markets.
Here's the thing. Arlington Park sits a short drive from downtown Sarasota and Sarasota Memorial Hospital, so it draws steady attention. But above $1 million, the neighborhood does not move as one market, and what it takes to buy or sell depends on your price tier. We reviewed 152 MLS listings from the past twelve months, including 24 closed sales at $1 million and above, to find out.
Two Markets Above $1 Million
Of the 69 homes that closed between October 29, 2025 and October 15, 2026, 24 sold for $1 million or more. That is about a third of sales, yet those homes produced 65% of sales dollars. They sold for a median of $1,732,500, or about $613 per square foot.
Even within that group, two tiers behave very differently, as the supply numbers below show.
How Much Choice Depends on Price Range
Four to six months of supply is generally considered balanced. At $1 million and up, Arlington Park sits near 14.5 months (29 active listings against 24 sales), but the range is wide:
- $1 million to $1.5 million: 8 sales and 3 active listings (1 under contract), about 4.5 months
- $1.5 million to $2 million: 7 sales and 9 active listings, about 15 months
- Above $2 million: 9 sales and 17 active listings (1 under contract), about 23 months
Each band rests on a small number of sales, so treat these as a direction, not a forecast. Even so, six homes with a last asking price above $2 million expired, were canceled or withdrawn over the past year, and three are back on the market. At the top, careful pricing matters most.
The First Two Weeks Matter
Among the 23 sales at $1 million and up with a recorded contract date, the typical home went under contract in about 53 days and closed about 7.5% below its original list price. The 4 homes that went under contract within 14 days sold at a median of just 1.7% below. The 8 that took more than 90 days sold at 17.8% below. We see it all the time. With samples this small, we'd call it a strong signal, not a rule.
Why Asking Prices Run Ahead of Closed Prices
The 24 closed sales at $1 million and up had a median of about $613 per square foot. Active listings at the same price level are asking a median of about $652, roughly 6% more. Finishes and lot size explain part of that gap, but 14 of the 29 active listings have already reduced their price, by a median of about 7.6%, and 16 have been on the market 90 days or longer.
New Construction and Pools
New builds drive this market. Twenty of the 24 closed sales and 28 of the 29 active listings at $1 million and up were built in 2005 or later, and a private pool is close to standard (21 of the 24 sales, 28 of the 29 active listings). The new builds that sold closed at a median of about 4.6% below original list price. With so few sales lacking a pool, we can't measure a premium, and we wouldn't promise one.
What It Takes to Sell Above $1 Million
Price to the closed sales. Closed homes at this level sold for about $613 per square foot, while active listings ask about $652. In the $1.5 million to $2 million tier, the typical sale went under contract in about 32 days and closed about 3% below original list price (7 sales, so moderate confidence).
Win the first two weeks. The 4 homes that went under contract within 14 days sold within about 2% of their original list price. The 8 that waited past 90 days gave up nearly 18%.
Be ready for a cash buyer. Ten of the 24 closed sales included cash, so have documents, showings and a clean offer path ready from day one.
Know your tier. Between $1 million and $1.5 million, buyers have only 3 active homes to choose from, which helps sellers, though the typical sale there still closed about 8% below original list price. Above $2 million, you're competing with 17 active listings, 9 of them on the market 90 days or longer, so sharp preparation and a clear comparison to closed sales can protect what you take home.
What It Takes to Buy Above $1 Million
Be ready to move between $1 million and $1.5 million. With only 3 active homes (1 more under contract), pre-approval or proof of funds and quick showings are a real advantage.
Use your leverage above $1.5 million. Of the 26 active listings at that level, 12 have already reduced their price and 15 have been on the market 90 days or longer. The typical sale closed roughly 3% to 7.5% below original list price, depending on tier.
Offer from value, not from the list price. Compare the ask to what similar homes closed for. With cash in the mix on many sales, a clean, well-supported offer helps even when you have room to negotiate.
We can't predict where prices go next, and one year of data can't separate a seasonal slowdown from a lasting shift. We'd build any offer around a home's value, not a forecast.
If you'd like to see where your home or budget fits, we'd be glad to walk through it with you. Contact us here.
Source: MLS data for the Arlington Park area. Closed sales October 29, 2025 through October 15, 2026; active and pending listings as of October 26, 2026. Figures cover homes priced at $1 million and above and are medians unless noted, and prices on active listings are asking prices. This is a general market summary, not a valuation of any individual home.
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